The Fourth Turning: by William Strauss and Neil Howe.
As a Baby Boomer Prophet 1943-1960 Yankee Expat living the good life in Antalya, Turkey I am certain that this is the really, really big one. It’s not the Atom Bomb, it’s not the assassination of JFK, it’s not 9/11, it’s not the 2008 crisis, it’s bigger than all previous ‘bigs’ in world history. Everyone has a dog or at least a Facebook page in this ‘whatever.’ I, of course, want to know what’s going to happen and when it’s going to happen. After all, I’m a 72 year-old boomer prophet and I should know these things. William Strauss and Neil Howe explain in their book “The Fourth Turning” how it’s an 80-year cycle (four generations) and this time around the Millennials 1982-2004 are the Hero generation, here to save the day, whatever and whenever that day may be.
“This is a period when, in each of these turnings, each generation is moving in their new phase of life. Boomers are beginning to retire; they are beginning to redefine the senior phase of life. X’s are beginning to assume mid-life roles as the dominant parent generation and leaders. These are people born in the ‘60s and ‘70s. And, Millennials are fully beginning to come of age and redefine young adulthood. And, meanwhile, a very small generation is just beginning to come on stream, which remembers nothing before 2008.”
“We can already see these generational divisions forming, and it is interesting how each generation is to some extent defined by the thing they have, they just have no memory of, they just barely have no memory of (e.g., Boomers are defined by the World War II that even the oldest (born in ’43 I’m the oldest and sure enough nada) of them cannot remember).”
|Birth Year||Archetype||Generational Name|
Below is a description of each of the four turnings, including which generational archetype fills each phase of life during that type of era. We also note which generation came of age during the most recent example of each turning, and how it contributed to that era’s mood. The descriptions refer to a four-phase model of social change devised by the famous sociologist Talcott Parsons, who hypothesized that society moves into a new phase every time the availability or demand for social order rises or falls.
First Turning: A High G.I. generation
The First Turning is a High. Old Prophets die, Nomads enter elder-hood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born. This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John Kennedy 5/29/1917 in 1963, a key life cycle marker for today’s older Americans. Coming of age during this High was the Artist archetype Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1942). Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults embodied the ethos of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and slipped quietly into America’s gleaming new suburbs.
In Parsons’ terms, a First Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for social order are high. Examples of earlier First Turnings include the post-Civil War Reconstruction Era, sometimes called the Victorian High of industrial growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution Era of Good Feelings, when Thomas Jefferson celebrated the advance of science and empire.
Second Turning: Awakening Silent generation
The Second Turning is an Awakening. Old Nomads die, Heroes enter elder-hood, Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is born. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists and spiritualists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural poverty. America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early ‘80s. Coming of age during this Awakening was the Prophet archetype Boom Generation (born 1943 to 1960), whose passionate idealism and search for authentic self-expression epitomized the mood of the era.
In Parsons’ terms, a Second Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is high, but the demand for such order is low. Examples of earlier Second Turnings include the Third Great Awakening around 1900, marked by labor protests, Billy Sunday evangelicals, and “new woman” feminists, and the Transcendental Awakening, which Henry David Thoreau described as a period “when we have lost the world…and begin to find ourselves.”
Third Turning: Unraveling Baby Boomer generation
The Third Turning is an Unraveling. Old Heroes die, Artists enter elder-hood, Prophets enter midlife, Bill Clinton 19 Aug ’46 and Hillary Clinton 26 Oct ’47 Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is born. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which teach the lesson that society must coalesce and build. Unraveling follow Awakenings, which teach the lesson that society must atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the early 1980s and probably ending in 2008. The era opened with triumphant “Morning in America” individualism and drifted toward a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, an edgy popular culture, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps. Coming of age during this Unraveling was the Nomad archetype Generation X (born 1961-1981), whose pragmatic, free-agent persona and Survivor-style self-testing have embodied the mood of the era.
In Parsons’ terms, a Third Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for such order are low. Examples of earlier Unravelings include the periods around the “roaring” 1920s of Prohibition, the Mexican War in the 1850s, and the French and Indian Wars in the 1760s. These were all periods of cynicism and bad manners, when civic authority felt weak, social disorder felt pervasive, and the culture felt exhausted.
Fourth Turning: A Crisis Nomad generation
The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elder-hood, Nomads enter midlife Michelle , Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.
In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.