My status, as a resident American economic refugee in Turkey, keeps me in a daily quandary over the coming apocalypse as predicted in Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning.

Where are we in the 4th Turning?

First we have to understand how the Crisis is broken down into sections. The Crisis starts with a Catalyst, which Strauss and Howe describe as “a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood”.Following the Catalyst, society should move quickly, typically from 1-5 years after the catalyst, into the regeneracy, which is “a new counter entropy that re-unifies and re-energizes civic life”. The Regeneracy should last from 10-15 years. And then finally we have the Climax which is a relatively short period of extreme conflict that leads to a Resolution.

The 4th Turning starts with the 2008 Financial Crisis as the CATALYST then through the stages of REGENERACY , CLIMAX & RESOLUTION by 2026.

Neil Howe originally considered 9/11 as the Catalyst, it was a startling event that produced a sudden shift in mood. But when 1-5 years later expected ‘country really started to pull together’ didn’t happen,  Howe re-calibrated the 4th Turning start-finish dates from the 2008 Financial Crisis to 2026.

My ‘putative’ spouse, Jane Marie, 2nd from the left, and I packed our 40  boxes of Chinese collectibles and emigrated to Antalya to catch the last act of the 4th Turning 2014-2026 on Turkey’s Mediterranean Riviera.

On November 9th at 4:00 AM our time we watched with absolute certainty – the shock and awe – of the 4th Turning. It wasn’t the ‘black swan’ that everyone expected it was an ‘orange swan.’ Jane Marie and all of her friends, her friends’ friends and 95% of FACEBOOK posts went into apoplexy – this was not how the 80 year, four generation ‘Boomer’ movie was supposed to end.

Following the Catalyst, society should move quickly, typically from 1-5 years after the catalyst, into the regeneracy; Lehman 2008 – Trump 2016, looks to me Neil Howe missed it by three but then there’s the FED move in 2013.
 

The 4th Worm Has Turned

The current 4th Turning is all about Money, not Race, Religion, Sex or Politics. Lehman Brothers was the Catalyst in 2008 but as Alan and I argue, in our forth-coming book, “Be Your Own Central Bank,” the Fed kicked off Step 2: Regeneracy with their May 22, 2013 Taper Tantrum. Almost five years after the crash, 12 trillion of funny money has been issued and 95% of the world’s peeps are not a cent richer.

Step 2 is Regeneracy “a new counter entropy (the degree of disorder or uncertainty in a system) that re-unifies and re-energizes civic life.” The Regeneracy should last from 10-15 years. September 15, 2018 will be the tenth anniversary of the “Big Short.” Responding to a question on the next U.S. recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019.”

Thanks to ‘Tricky Dick’ every nation on earth is kiting checks out of the same USD reserve currency checkbook but only the US has overdraft privileges. As Trump likes to boast, “America holds all the cards.” The Emerging Market countries are contemplating tossing in their cards. Venezuela has folded, and Argentina has borrowed 50 billion from the IMF house. China is the Big Dawg at the table, who is using blocked currency chips called Yuan or Renminbi.

China accuses the US of writing them a bum check, which they cashed into Yuan that even the Chinese people don’t want. It’s karma, China has been playing poker with the US using fake money, at least it is more fake than the US dollar because the Yuan is not freely traded.

“And then finally we have the Climax which is a relatively short period of extreme conflict that leads to a Resolution.” Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny,”

In Chapter 9 of “The Fourth Turning” Strauss and Howe outline how the prior Climax have occurred. In their analysis there is one striking similarity to each Crisis cycle: practically no one sees the climax coming, even less than a year in advance.

Rickards is my favorite ‘worm turner’ gave this Perfect Storm forecast 1) Impeachment 2) 2020 Election and 3) Spygate.

“The worm has turned” suggests a reversal of fortune, particularly the kind of situation in which the Peasants Revolt!