Where are we in the 4th Turning?
First we have to understand how the Crisis is broken down into sections. The Crisis starts with a Catalyst, which Strauss and Howe describe as “a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood”.Following the Catalyst, society should move quickly, typically from 1-5 years after the catalyst, into the regeneracy, which is “a new counter entropy that re-unifies and re-energizes civic life”. The Regeneracy should last from 10-15 years. And then finally we have the Climax which is a relatively short period of extreme conflict that leads to a Resolution.
Neil Howe originally considered 9/11 as the Catalyst, it was a startling event that produced a sudden shift in mood. But when 1-5 years later expected ‘country really started to pull together’ didn’t happen, Howe re-calibrated the 4th Turning start-finish dates from the 2008 Financial Crisis to 2026.
On November 9th at 4:00 AM our time we watched with absolute certainty – the shock and awe – of the 4th Turning. It wasn’t the ‘black swan’ that everyone expected it was an ‘orange swan.’ Jane Marie and all of her friends, her friends’ friends and 95% of FACEBOOK posts went into apoplexy – this was not how the 80 year, four generation ‘Boomer’ movie was supposed to end.
The 4th Worm Has Turned
Step 2 is Regeneracy “a new counter entropy (the degree of disorder or uncertainty in a system) that re-unifies and re-energizes civic life.” The Regeneracy should last from 10-15 years. September 15, 2018 will be the tenth anniversary of the “Big Short.” Responding to a question on the next U.S. recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019.”
Thanks to ‘Tricky Dick’ every nation on earth is kiting checks out of the same USD reserve currency checkbook but only the US has overdraft privileges. As Trump likes to boast, “America holds all the cards.” The Emerging Market countries are contemplating tossing in their cards. Venezuela has folded, and Argentina has borrowed 50 billion from the IMF house. China is the Big Dawg at the table, who is using blocked currency chips called Yuan or Renminbi.
“And then finally we have the Climax which is a relatively short period of extreme conflict that leads to a Resolution.” Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny,”
In Chapter 9 of “The Fourth Turning” Strauss and Howe outline how the prior Climax have occurred. In their analysis there is one striking similarity to each Crisis cycle: practically no one sees the climax coming, even less than a year in advance.
“The worm has turned” suggests a reversal of fortune, particularly the kind of situation in which the Peasants Revolt!