Trump’s Sunzi Stratagem #27: “Feign madness but keep your balance”

(假痴不癲／假痴不癫, Jiǎ chī bù diān) Hide behind the mask of a fool, a drunk, or a madman to create confusion about your intentions and motivations. Lure your opponent into underestimating your ability until, overconfident, he drops his guard. Then you may attack.

In 1776 twenty-seven year old George  Washington took on the British and almost half of his fellow colonists to victory in the American Revolution. In 2016 Donald  Trump and Bernie  Sanders took on the Deep State and almost half of their respective  voting public.

Bernie, unintentionally exposed the establishment’s King George candidate – Hillary Clinton – to be the enemy of the people. And the rest is history.

 

 

 

 

Ms Kirchner telling Hillary how Argentina has been transferring spousal presidential power since Peron. “Don’t Cry for me Argentina” is a sad song because Evita died before her husband Juan Peron could break the presidential palace glass ceiling.

Kirchner remained a highly influential politician during the term of his successor and wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. The press developed the term “presidential marriage” to make reference to both of them at once.^[42] Some political analysts compared this type of government with a diarchy

Ray Farnham, my 7^th grade Social Studies teacher, was always describing the challenge of history, since time began, as the nothing more than separating big potatoes from the small potatoes. Teacher Ray’s story example:

Once there was a man who was hired to sort potatoes into two piles—big potatoes and small potatoes. His employer thought this task should take no more than a couple of hours. However, when he returned at the end of the day, he found his helper sitting in front of the huge pile holding a potato in each hand, while muttering to himself, “decisions, decisions, decisions.”

U.S. government economic bailout of 2008 is the most recent example of the big potatoes sorting the potatoes into two piles with 99% ending up in the small potato pile.

Henry “Hank” Merritt Paulson, Jr. (born March 28, 1946) is an American banker who served as the 74th Secretary of the Treasury. He had served as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs,

Lehman’s bankruptcy

The support given by Federal Reserve Board, under Ben Bernanke, and the US Treasury with Paulson at the helm, in the acquisition of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan and the $200bn facility made available to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac attracted a great deal of criticism in congress by both Republicans and Democrats.^[32] Paulson and Geithner made every effort to enable Barclays to acquire Lehman Brothers, including convincing other large Wall Street firms to commit their own funds to support the deal. In light of the recent Bear Stearns criticism, Paulson was against committing public funds towards a bailout, for fear of being labelled ‘Mr Bailout’.^[33] When British regulators indicated they would not approve the purchase, Lehman went into bankruptcy, and Paulson and Geithner worked to contain the systemic impact.^[34]

“Well, as you know, we’re working through a difficult period in our financial markets right now as we work off some of the past excesses. But the American people can remain confident in the soundness and the resilience of our financial system.” ^[35]
In the aftermath of Lehman’s failure and the simultaneous purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, already fragile credit markets froze, so that companies having nothing to do with banking but needed financing (e.g. General Electric) could not get daily funding requirements which had the effect of sending the US equity/bond markets into turmoil between September 15, 2008, and September 19, 2008.

Paulson, acting as U.S. Treasury Secretary, caused outcries from both the Republican and Democratic Parties as well as the general populace as he tried to get the situation under control.

Through unprecedented intervention by the U.S. Treasury, Paulson led government efforts which he said were aimed at avoiding a severe economic slowdown. After the Dow Jones dropped 30% and turmoil ensued in the global markets, Paulson pushed through legislation authorizing the Treasury to use $700 billion to stabilize the financial system. Working with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he influenced the decision to create a credit facility (bridge loan and warrants) of US$85 billion to American International Group so it would avoid filing bankruptcy, after having been told that AIG held teacher pension plans, 401k plans, $1.5 trillion in life insurance plans for Americans, and the French Finance Minister called to let Paulson know that AIG held the interests of many Eurozone countries.

On September 19, 2008, Paulson called for the U.S. government to use hundreds of billions of Treasury dollars to help financial firms clean up nonperforming mortgages threatening the liquidity of those firms.^[36] Because of his leadership and public appearances on this issue, the press labeled these measures the “Paulson financial rescue plan” or simply the Paulson Plan.^[37]

With the passage of H.R. 1424, Paulson became the manager of the United States Emergency Economic Stabilization fund.

As Treasury Secretary, he also sat on the newly established Financial Stability Oversight Board that oversaw the Troubled Assets Relief Program.

Paulson agreed with Bernanke that the only way to unlock the frozen capital markets was to provide direct injections into financial institutions so investors would have confidence in these institutions. The government would take a non-voting share position, with 5% dividends for the first year on the money lent to the banks and 9% thereafter until the banks stabilized and could repay the government loans. According to the book Too Big To Fail, Paulson, Bernanke, New York Federal Reserve Chairman Timothy Geithner, and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair attended the meeting on October 13, 2008, at which this plan was presented to the CEOs of nine major banks.

Time magazine on Henry Paulson[edit]

Time named Paulson as a runner-up for its 2008 Person of the Year, saying, with reference to the global financial crisis, “if there is a face to this financial debacle, it is now his…” before concluding that “given the … realities he faced, there is no obviously better path [he] could have followed”.^[38]

Conflict of interest claims[edit]

It has been pointed out that Paulson’s plan could potentially have some conflicts of interest, since Paulson was a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, a firm that might benefit largely from the plan. Economic columnists called for more scrutiny of his actions.^[39] Questions remain about Paulson’s interest, despite having no direct financial interest in Goldman, since he had sold his entire stake in the firm prior to becoming Treasury Secretary, pursuant to ethics law.^[40] The Goldman Sachs benefit from the AIG bailout was recently estimated as US$12.9 billion and GS was the largest recipient of the public funds from AIG.^[41] Creating the collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) forming the basis of the current crisis was an active part of Goldman Sach’s business during Paulson’s tenure as CEO. Opponents argued that Paulson remained a Wall Street insider who maintained close friendships with higher-ups of the bailout beneficiaries. If passed into law as originally written, the proposed bill would have given the United States Treasury Secretary unprecedented powers over the economic and financial life of the U.S. Section 8 of Paulson’s original plan stated: “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”^[42] Some time after the passage of a rewritten bill, the press reported that the Treasury was now proposing to use these funds ($700 billion) in ways other than what was originally intended in the bill.^[43]

Ben Shalom Bernanke  ^{bar NANG kee} born December 13, 1953) is an American economist at the Brookings Institution^[3] who served two terms as chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, from 2006 to 2014. During his tenure as chairman, Bernanke oversaw the Federal Reserve’s response to the late-2000s financial crisis. Bernanke attended Harvard University, where he lived in Winthrop House, as did the future CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, Before becoming Federal Reserve chairman, Bernanke was a tenured professor at Princeton University and chaired the department of economics there from 1996 to September 2002, when he went on public service leave.

From August 5, 2002 until June 21, 2005, he was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, proposed the Bernanke Doctrine, and first discussed “the Great Moderation” — the theory that traditional business cycles have declined in volatility in recent decades through structural changes that have occurred in the international economy, particularly increases in the economic stability of developing nations, diminishing the influence of macroeconomic (monetary and fiscal) policy.

Bernanke then served as chairman of President George W. Bush‘s Council of Economic Advisers before President Bush nominated him to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the United States Federal Reserve. His first term began February 1, 2006. Bernanke was confirmed for a second term as chairman on January 28, 2010, after being renominated by President Barack Obama, who later referred to him as “the epitome of calm.” ^[4] His second term ended February 1, 2014, when he was succeeded by Janet Yellen.

Merrill Lynch merger with Bank of America[edit]

In a letter to Congress from then-New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo dated April 23, 2009, Bernanke was mentioned along with former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in allegations of fraud concerning the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America. The letter alleged that the extent of the losses at Merrill Lynch were not disclosed to Bank of America by Bernanke and Paulson. When Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis informed Paulson that Bank of America was exiting the merger by invoking the “Materially Adverse Change” (MAC) clause, Paulson immediately called Lewis to a meeting in Washington. At the meeting, which allegedly took place on December 21, 2008, Paulson told Lewis that he and the board would be replaced if they invoked the MAC clause and additionally not to reveal the extent of the losses to shareholders. Paulson stated to Cuomo’s office that he was directed by Bernanke to threaten Lewis in this manner.^[48]

Bernanke is particularly interested in the economic and political causes of the Great Depression, on which he has published numerous academic journal articles. Before Bernanke’s work, the dominant monetarist theory of the Great Depression was Milton Friedman’s view that it had been largely caused by the Federal Reserve‘s having reduced the money supply and has on several occasions argued that one of the biggest mistakes made during the period was to raise interest rates too early.^[53] In a speech on Milton Friedman’s ninetieth birthday (November 8, 2002), Bernanke said, “Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna [Schwartz, Friedman’s coauthor]: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”^[54]

Bernanke has cited Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in his decision to lower interest rates to zero.^[55] Anna Schwartz, however, was highly critical of Bernanke and wrote an opinion piece in the New York Times advising Obama against his reappointment as chair of the Federal Reserve.^[56] Bernanke focused less on the role of the Federal Reserve and more on the role of private banks and financial institutions.^[57]

Bernanke wrote about his time as chairman of the Federal Reserve in his 2015 book, The Courage to Act, in which he revealed that the world’s economy came close to collapse in 2007 and 2008. Bernanke asserts that it was only the novel efforts of the Fed (cooperating with other agencies and agencies of foreign governments) that prevented an economic catastrophe greater than the Great Depression.^[5]

Greenspan On June 2, 1987, President Ronald Reagan nominated Greenspan as a successor to Paul Volcker as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, and the Senate confirmed him on August 11, 1987.^[25] Investor, author and commentator Jim Rogershas said that Greenspan lobbied to get this chairmanship.^[26]

Two months after his confirmation Greenspan said immediately following the 1987 stock market crash that the Fed “affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system”^[27][28][29] George H. W. Bush blamed Fed policy for not winning a second term. Democratic president Bill Clinton reappointed Greenspan, and consulted him on economic matters. Greenspan lent support to Clinton’s 1993 deficit reduction program.^[30] Greenspan, while still fundamentally monetarist in orientation, had eclectic views on the economy, and his monetary policy decisions largely followed standard Taylor rule prescriptions (see Taylor 1993 and 1999). Greenspan also played a key role in organizing the U.S. bailout of Mexico during the 1994-95 Mexican peso crisis.^[31]

In 2000, Greenspan raised interest rates several times; these actions were believed by many to have caused the bursting of the dot-com bubble. According to laureate Paul, however, “he didn’t raise interest rates to curb the market’s enthusiasm; he didn’t even seek to impose margin requirements on stock market investors. Instead, he waited until the bubble burst, as it did in 2000, then tried to clean up the mess afterward”.^[32] E. Ray Canterbery agrees with Krugman’s criticism.^[33]

In January 2001, Greenspan, in support of President Bush’s proposed tax decrease, stated that the federal surplus could accommodate a significant tax cut while paying down the national debt.^[34]

In autumn 2001, as a decisive reaction to the September 11 attacks and various corporate scandals which undermined the economy, the Greenspan-led Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest cuts that brought down the Federal Funds rate to 1% in 2004. While presenting the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report in July 2002, he said that “It is not that humans have become any more greedy than in generations past. It is that the avenues to express greed had grown so enormously”. and suggested that financial markets need to be regulated.^[35] His critics, led by Steve Forbes, attributed the rapid rise in commodity prices and gold to Greenspan’s loose monetary policy, which Forbes believed had caused excessive asset inflation and a weak dollar. By late 2004, the price of gold was higher than its 12-year moving average.

On May 18, 2004, Greenspan was nominated by President George W. Bush to serve for an unprecedented fifth term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. He was previously appointed to the post by Presidents Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.

In a May 2005 speech, Greenspan stated: “Two years ago at this conference I argued that the growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated methods for measuring and managing risks had been key factors underlying the remarkable resilience of the banking system, which had recently shrugged off severe shocks to the economy and the financial system. At the same time, I indicated some concerns about the risks associated with derivatives, including the risks posed by concentration in certain derivatives markets, notably the over-the-counter (OTC) markets for U.S. dollar interest rate options.”^[36]

Greenspan opposed tariffs against People’s Republic of China for its refusal to let the yuan rise,^[37] suggesting instead that any American workers displaced by trade could be compensated through unemployment insurance and retraining programs.^[38]

Greenspan’s term as a member of the Board ended on January 31, 2006, and Ben Bernanke was confirmed as his successor.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is an American multinational investment banking firm that engages in global investment banking, investment, securities and other financial services primarily with institutional clients.

Goldman Sachs was founded in 1869 and is headquartered at 200 West Street in Lower Manhattan, New York City, with additional offices in other international financial centers.^[3] The firm provides asset management, mergers and acquisitions advice, prime brokerage and underwriting services to its clients, which include corporations, governments and individuals. The firm also engages in market and private equity deals, and is a primary dealer in the U.S. Treasury security market.

Goldman Sachs was hit hard by the 2008 economic crisis,^[4] because of its involvement in subprime mortgages, and was subsequently rescued as part of a massive U.S. government bailout.

Former Goldman executives who moved on to government positions include, but are not limited to, Robert Rubin and Paulson who served as U.S. Secretaries of the Treasury under former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, respectively; Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, and Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008–13 and Governor of the Bank of England since July 2013.

Volcker was an economic advisor to President Barack Obama, heading the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.^[29][30][31] During the financial crisis, Volcker has been extremely critical of banks, saying that their response to the financial crisis has been inadequate, and that more regulation of banks is called for.^[32][33][34] Specifically, Volcker has called for a break-up of the nation’s largest banks, prohibiting deposit-taking institutions from engaging in riskier activities such as proprietary trading, private equity, and hedge fund investments

 

 

We are truly grateful Bernie for your Political Revolution. You have brought us to the gates of the establishment. You are the Martin Luther King of 2016. You have educated, inspired and led the people with honesty, dignity and humility. You have won the battle for the hearts and minds of the electorate. You have said yourself that this Revolution is not about Bernie it’s about us.

The us in us knows that Trump is an asshole but he is our only option, if us wants to win the war. Hillary wouldn’t honor the Pledge of Allegiance let alone the Democratic Party Platform. Don’t waste your life energy attacking Trump. Don’t waste your life energy trying to negotiate with the Democratic Elite. Vet the Senate and House candidate list, regardless of party affiliation, then tell us for whom to vote.

Become the LBJ of future American political accomplishment. Lyndon Baines Johnson single-handily ran the Senate and with his buddy Sam Rayburn controlled the House. No one, whether they are Bourgeoisie or Proletarian, doubts your word – you remain the last honest politico in power – for example, when you announce legislation to pass Super Glass-Steagall the public and Congressmen who want to keep their job will say Amen.

Let Brexit be our guide, “Those with money are in, those without money are out.” 95 million Americans do not have a job and no hope of having a job. At least, 300 million Americans have no money and only a tiny hope of getting any money. LBJ was a lousy president because he used the Congress to enact his good, bad and ugly policy decisions, Civil Rights/Vietnam/Great Society. since 1964, the “do nothing Congress” has done nothing but make bad, very bad, policy decisions.

LBJ, to pay for his “Guns and Butter” folly was forced to break the chains of gold that kept the Federal Reserve, the Banks and most importantly, the US

We have paid dearly for Nixon’s colossal error. But this abhorrent deviation from a sound dollar can be corrected. The country — and the world — awaits the political leader who truly understands making the dollar as good as gold is vital to the prosperity, security and liberty of the American people, and who can therefore lead the country and the world forward to a 21st century gold standard.

According to Ed Sanders, the change in the public label from “beatnik” to “hippie” occurred after the 1967 Human Be-In in San Francisco’s Golden Gate Park, where Ginsberg,Gary Snyder, and Michael McClure led the crowd in chanting “Om”. Ginsberg was also at the infamous 1968 Democratic National Convention, and was friends with Abbie Hoffman and other members of the Chicago Seven. Stylistic differences between beatniks, marked by somber colors, dark shades and goatees, gave way to colorful psychedelic clothing and long hair worn by hippies. While the beats were known for “playing it cool” and keeping a low profile, hippies became known for displaying their individuality.

One early book hailed as evidencing the transition from “beatnik” to “hippie” culture, was Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me by Richard Fariña, brother-in-law of Joan Baez. Written in 1963, it was published April 28, 1966—two days before its author was killed in a motorcycle crash.

The Youth International Party, whose members were commonly called Yippies, was a radically youth-oriented and counterculture revolutionary offshoot of the free speech and anti-war movements of the 1960s. 

The Yippies had no formal membership or hierarchy. Abbie Hoffman, Anita Hoffman, Jerry Rubin, Nancy Kurshan, and Paul Krassner founded the Yippies (according to his own account, Krassner coined the name) at a meeting in Abbie and Anita’s New York flat on December 31, 1967.^[7] “If the press had created ‘hippie,’ could not we five hatch the ‘yippie’?” Abbie Hoffman wrote.

Anita Hoffman liked the word, but felt that the New York Times and other “strait-laced types” needed a more formal name to take the movement seriously. That same night she came up with Youth International Party, because it symbolized the movement and made for a good play on words. The Yippies held their first press conference in New York at the Americana Hotel March 17, 1968, five months before the August 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago. 

‘Get Clean for Gene”

Sister Sue, upper left, Walnut Hills High School ’64, dropped out of Miami of Ohio to run away to Haight Ashbury, San Francisco to be a Hippie. She shared her life with a Buppie but ventured to DC where she met her future husband John, front with baby. John was a Yippie at heart campaigning for Eugene McCarthy in he 1968 election. John retired from Yuppie-hood in 2012 as president of St. Charles Community College.

Jerry Rubin, the Yippie, Walnut Hills High School ’56 dropped out of UC Berkeley to be a full time socio-political activist.

Kenneth Elton “Ken” Kesey (/ˈkiːziː/; September 17, 1935 – November 10, 2001) was an American novelist, essayist, andcountercultural figure. He considered himself a link between the Beat Generation of the 1950s and the hippies of the 1960s.

Kesey was born in La Junta, Colorado and grew up in Springfield, Oregon, graduating from the University of Oregon in 1957. He began writing One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest in 1960 following the completion of a graduate fellowship in creative writing at Stanford University; the novel was an immediate commercial and critical success when published two years later.

Authored by John  Mauldin, originally posted at MauldinEconomics.com,

Psychologists from Sigmund Freud forward have generally agreed: our core attitudes about life are largely locked in by age five or so. Changing those attitudes requires intense effort.

Neil Howe and William Strauss took this obvious truth and drew an obvious conclusion: if our attitudes form in early childhood, then the point in history at which we live our childhood must play a large part in shaping our attitudes.

It’s not only early childhood, however, that forms us. Howe and Strauss think we go through a second formative period in early adulthood. The challenges we face as we become independent adults determine our approach to life.

These insights mean we can divide the population into generational cohorts, each spanning roughly 20 years. Each generation consists of people who were born and came of age at the same point in history.

These generations had similar experiences and thus gravitated toward similar attitudes.

At this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, Howe illustrated the point with this cartoon. (I think we should now add an illustration of a couple texting on their phones, saying “Let’s tell our friends online first.”)

Amusing, yes, but true. Young love, a universal experience, took different forms for Americans who grew up in the 1950s vs. the 1970s vs. the 1990s. Ditto for many other aspects of life.

Four generational archetypes: Heroes, Artists, Prophets, & Nomads

In their book The Fourth Turning, Howe and Strauss identified four generational archetypes: Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad. Each consists of people born in a roughly 20-year period. As each archetypal generation reaches the end of its 80-year lifespan, the cycle repeats.

Each archetypal generation goes through the normal phases of life: childhood, young adulthood, mature adulthood, and old age. Each tends to dominate society during middle age (40–60 years old) then begins dying off as the next generation takes the helm.

This change of control from one generation to the next is called a “turning” in the Strauss/Howe scheme.The cycle repeats on a “fourth turning” as a new hero generation comes of age and replaces the nomads. Each fourth turning, however, is a great crisis.

(The turnings have their own characteristics, which I describe in detail in this article. Today’s economic and political landscape, unfortunately, makes it clear we are about halfway through the fourth turning.)

Now, let’s get back to the archetypes and see how they match the generations alive today.

The characteristics of each archetype aren’t neatly divided by the calendar; they are better seen as evolving along a continuum. (This is a very important point. It’s why we get trends and changes, not abrupt turnarounds. Thankfully.) People born toward the beginning or end of a generation share some aspects of the previous or following one.

Hero generations are usually raised by protective parents. Heroes come of age during a time of great crisis. Howe calls them heroes because they resolve that crisis, an accomplishment that then defines the rest of their lives.

Following the crisis, heroes become institutionally powerful in midlife and remain focused on meeting great challenges. In old age, they tend to have a spiritual awakening as they watch younger generations work through cultural upheaval.

The G.I. Generation that fought World War II is the most recent example of the hero archetype. They built the US into an economic powerhouse in the postwar years and then confronted youthful rebellion in the 1960s.

Further back, the generation of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, heroes of the American Revolution, experienced the religious “Great Awakening” in their twilight years.

Artists are the children of heroes, born before and during the crisis. They are, however, not old enough to be an active part of the solution. Highly protected during childhood, Artists are risk-averse young adults in the post-crisis years.

They see conformity as the best path to success. They develop and refine the innovations forged in the crisis. Artists experience the same cultural awakening as heroes but from the perspective of mid-adulthood.

Today’s older retirees are mostly artists, part of the “Silent Generation” that may remember World War II but were too young to participate. They married early and moved into gleaming new 1950s suburbs.

The Silent Generation went through its own midlife crisis in the 1970s and 1980s before entering a historically affluent, active, gated-community retirement.

Prophet generations experience childhood in a period of post-crisis affluence. Having not seen a real crisis, they often create cultural upheaval during their young adult years. In midlife, they become moralistic, values-obsessed leaders and parents. As they enter old age, prophets lay the groundwork for the next crisis.

The postwar Baby Boomers are the latest prophet generation. They grew up in generally comfortable times with the US at the height of its global power. They expanded their consciousness when they came of age in the “Awakening” period of the 1960s. They defined the 1970s/1980s “yuppie” lifestyle and are now entering old age, having shaped the culture by virtue of sheer numbers.

Nomads are the fourth and final archetype. They are children during the “Awakening” periods of cultural chaos. Unlike the overly indulged and protected prophets, nomads go through childhood with minimal supervision and guidance. They learn early in life not to trust society’s basic institutions. They come of age as individualistic pragmatists.

The most recent nomads are Generation X, born in the 1960s and 1970s. Their earliest memories are of faraway war, urban protests, no-fault divorce, and broken homes. Now entering midlife, Generation X is trying to give its own children a better experience. They find success elusive because they distrust large institutions and have no strong connections to public life. They prefer to stay out of the spotlight and trust only themselves. Their story is still unfolding today.

Millennials are a new hero generation

After the nomad archetype, the cycle repeats with another hero generation: the Millennials (born from 1982 through about 2004) are beginning to take root in American culture.

They are a large generation numerically, filling schools and colleges and propelling new technology into the mainstream. If the pattern holds, they will face a great crisis. It will influence the rest of their lives… just as World War II shaped the G.I. Generation heroes.

It’s not going to be a short period of difficulty. It will be an existential crisis, one in which society’s strongest institutions collapse (or are severely challenged and stressed) and national survival is in serious doubt. The Crisis can be economic, cultural, religious, military, or all the above.

Using Neil Howe’s timeline, we are currently about halfway through the fourth turning. We may have another decade to go. Maybe not. We’ll figure this out soon.

First Turning: A High

The First Turning is a High. Old Prophets die, Nomads enter elderhood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born. This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of Hero John Kennedy (29 May 1917) in 1963, a key life-cycle marker for today’s older Americans. Coming of age during this High was the Artist archetype Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1942). Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults embodied the ethos of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and slipped quietly into America’s gleaming new suburbs.

In Parsons’ terms, a First Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for social order are high. Examples of earlier First Turnings include the post-Civil War Reconstruction Era, sometimes called the Victorian High of industrial growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution Era of Good Feelings, when Thomas Jefferson celebrated the advance of science and empire.

Second Turning: Awakening

The Second Turning is an Awakening. Old Nomads die, Heroes enter elder hood, Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is born. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists and spiritualists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural poverty. America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” typified by Bernie Sanders 8 Sep ’41 which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early ‘80s. Coming of age during this Awakening was the Prophet archetype Boom Generation (born 1943 to 1960), whose passionate idealism and search for authentic self-expression epitomized the mood of the era. 

In Parsons’ terms, a Second Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is high, but the demand for such order is low. Examples of earlier Second Turnings include the Third Great Awakening around 1900, marked by labor protests, Billy Sunday evangelicals, and “new woman” feminists, and the Transcendental Awakening, which Henry David Thoreau described as a period “when we have lost the world…and begin to find ourselves.” 

Third Turning: Unraveling

The Third Turning is an Unraveling. Old Heroes die, Artists enter elder hood, Prophets enter midlife, Bill Clinton 19 Aug ’46 and Hillary Clinton 26 Oct ’47 Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is born. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which teach the lesson that society must coalesce and build. Unravelings follow Awakenings, which teach the lesson that society must atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the early 1980s and probably ending in 2008. The era opened with triumphant “Morning in America” individualism and drifted toward a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, an edgy popular culture, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps. Coming of age during this Unraveling was the Nomad archetype Generation X (born 1961-1981), whose pragmatic, free-agent persona and Survivor-style self-testing have embodied the mood of the era. 

In Parsons’ terms, a Third Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for such order are low. Examples of earlier Unravelings include the periods around the “roaring” 1920s of Prohibition, the Mexican War in the 1850s, and the French and Indian Wars in the 1760s. These were all periods of cynicism and bad manners, when civic authority felt weak, social disorder felt pervasive, and the culture felt exhausted.

Fourth Turning: A Crisis Nomads

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Michelle 17 Jan ’64 Barrack Obama 4 Aug ’61Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

 

Fourth Turning Archetypes PROPHET, NOMAD, HERO & ARTIST historical record from the Civil War through the Great Depression to the approaching Millennial Big Bang.

I end with a new word, at least new to me. A friend called it to my attention. It speaks of the moment we’re in. It is “kakistocracy,” from the Greek. It means government by the worst persons, by the least qualified or most unprincipled.

Civil War Archetypes

	PROPHET	NOMAD	HERO	ARTIST
Civil War	Era of Good Feelings (1794–1822)	Transcendental Awakening (1822–1844)Grant 1822	Mexican War & Sectionalism (1844–1860)Lincoln 1843	Civil War (1860–1865)
	PROPHET	NOMAD	HERO	ARTIST
Great Power Archetypes	Reconstruction & Gilded Age (1865–1886)Stalin 1878Hitler 1889 Mao 1893 Franco 1892 Mussolini 1883	Third Great Awakening (1886–1908)	World War I & Prohibition (1908–1929)JFK 1917Reagan 1911 Carter 1924 Nixon 1913 LBJ 1908	Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946)Bernie 1941Dylan 1941 Greenspan 1926 Thatcher 1925 MLK 1929
	PROPHET	NOMAD	HERO	ARTIST
Millennial Big Bang Archetypes	American High (1946–1964)George ‘W’ 1946Hillary 1947 Bill Clinton 1946 Trump 1946 Putin 1952 Xi Jinping 1953 Merkel 1954	Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984)Michelle O 1964Obama 1961	Long Boom & Culture Wars (1984–2008)Zuckerberg 1984Priscilla Z 1985 McKayla 1992 Tamara 1995	Global Financial Crisis (2008–2029?)Maxima Chan 2015