Fourth Turning Archetypes PROPHET, NOMAD, HERO & ARTIST historical record from the Civil War through the Great Depression to the approaching Millennial Big Bang.

I end with a new word, at least new to me. A friend called it to my attention. It speaks of the moment we’re in. It is “kakistocracy,” from the Greek. It means government by the worst persons, by the least qualified or most unprincipled.

Civil War Archetypes

History is just a collection of four generation length movies that take 80 years to make. George and Tom played leading roles in the classic documentary, ‘The American Revolution.’ The second flick, ‘the Civil War’ took only 71 years to produce because Abe was shot before completion. Following this tragic-drama Teddy foreshadowed America’s leap on to the world stage in ‘the Great Wars of WWI & WWII.’ Our movie, our very own contribution to the fabled glory of the Generational Time Continuum, began in 1943, with in theater viewing scheduled no later than the summer of 2026. ‘Millennial’ was the generic title given, however, after Trump won in 2016, ‘Apocalypse Soon’ has been suggested.

Having a front row seat since September 1943, I’m going with The Conspiracy Wars as my title for this 4th and possibly last Turning flick.

The PROPHET: Harry Truman

Every great movie spills out in four stages, what Neil Howe in his book, Fourth Turning, calls turnings. The first act, in Howe lingo the 1^st turning, (1943-1963) opens with the situation, where we are, at that point in time.

The NOMAD: JFK

In the sequence of things, the next act belongs to the NOMAD, the pot stirrers, the men of action, the go-to-guys that get the show on the road for the 2^nd turning referred to as the Awakening  (1963-1986)

The HERO: George ‘W’ Bush

The 3^rd turning is always called the Unravelling  where history gets out of hand and the super HERO is born.  (1984-2008)

The ARTIST: Donald J. Trump

At last we get to the uncut action scenes with real and unrehearsed special effects, the 4^th turning A Crisis (2008-2026). The tension keeps building until the climax, followed by the resolution. This is always the best part of any story.

Rock, my favorite 7^th grader ESL student, had spent the previous two years attending public school in Manhattan because his mother was part of the Chinese delegation to the UN. Rock, in his fluent unaccented English, explained to me why the US education system was so fantastically wonderful and China’s so deplorable – CRITICAL THINKING.

I spent the next seven years in China trying to teach ESL the way I was taught Architecture – KINESTHETICALLY. Rock said the teachers in NYC actually asked the students questions versus memorizing answers as they do in China – that’s why they excel in math, they know all the formulas by heart. That explained why Trig, Physics, Calculus and Chemistry were absent from my scholastic radar. I did learn that asking questions was referred to as the Socratic Method and quite possibly that was the secret ingredient for CRITICAL THINKING.

However, not wanting to burst Rock’s bubble about the magnificence of American education, teaching English to 900 kids where, except for Rock and a sprinkling of two or three others in each class of sixty, nobody understood a thing I said, was a challenge even for Socrates himself. Further, reflecting on how I only passed my third year of Latin by making a plaster of Paris scale model of the Colosseum that had nothing to do with CRITICAL THINKING or Socratic questioning. I decided to stick with EXPERIENTIAL SIMULATIONS or learn-by-doing exercises e.g. teach them how to play baseball, go bowling, act out Little Red Riding Hood, and conduct Cheerleading team competitions.

After, six years, five months and fourteen days of KINESTHETIC insanity, I got an offer I couldn’t refuse. Jane Marie, in a moment of CRITICALLY THINKING clarity, said lets move to Antalya and live off my Social Security. Soon after arrival we were both engaged in the sharing of our vast ESL experience with the young Turks, who, like the Chinese, were paying for CRITICAL THINKING, not Cheerleading monkey-business. No longer monetarily burdened, I had time to home study just what is this CRITICALLY THINKING business, anyway? Maybe they don’t teach CRITICAL THINKING in architectural schools?

How come the Turks have lived on the other side of the Bosporus from Socrates’s home amphitheater for 2,500 years without picking up on a few CRITICAL THINKING tips? The Chinese have lots of good excuses, they live far away and have a 9,000 character alphabet that only they can read. That’s why Ataturk introduced the Latin letters in 1925 but by itself can’t make up 2500 years of lost learning. That’s why we don’t read books in architecture after our freshman year, it might hinder our creativity.

My CRITICAL THINKING veil was lifted one day when our Turk ESL book publisher turned me on to the father of ESL Stephen Krashen. Krashen’s theory claims that first, second and third language acquisition comes from reading books – no other way. No cheerleading, no watching TV, no grammar-vocab memorization – comic books to short story books to field of interest books. And therein lies the answer to my CRITICAL THINKING dilemma nobody read any books until GUTENBERG invented the printing press in the 1400’s.

Without Gutenberg we would have no Canterbury Tales, no Grimm’s Fairy Tales, no Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, no Walt Disney, no Hollywood and no ZUCKERBERG.

The pollsters got it all wrong. Hillary thought it was in the bag, but it just wasn’t in the cards. Hillary’s birthday was October 26th, during the debates she was in her 52 day NEPTUNE planetary period from September 4th to midnight October 25th. Call it fate, call it destiny or call it the infinite universe of ‘whatever’ Hillary got the NINE of Clubs card. Clubs are the mental cards and the NINE signifies and ending of beliefs, or mental constructs. The verse in the Scriptures of Robert Lee Camps’s Love Cards reads:

“It is entirely possible that a longtime cherished dream of yours could come to an end during this period. Let it go and many new and better things will come to replace it.”

Unfortunately two days after Hillary’s birthday FBI Director Comey dropped the Huma-Weiner bomb on October 28th. Hillary’s karmic fate gods dealt her the ACE of Spades in Mercury to get her 69th year off to a 52-day planetary start. The ACE of Spades represents ambition or death, its signification depends where and when it lands.

Trump, Bernie and Jeb Bush all have the ACE of Spades as either their Birth or Ego card. Hillary’s ego cards the QUEEN of Spades and KING of Clubs are great. However, The ‘who she truly is’ card the NINE of Hearts: The Giver of Love Card seems to follow the philosophy of “it is better to give than to receive.” Out of our 45 Presidents Zachary Taylor was the only NINE of Hearts and he died sixteen months into his term in office.

Hillary Clinton – Net Worth: $38 Million

Hilary’s political career may have experienced its setbacks due to her recent defeat to Donald Trump in the 2016 elections, but this powerful woman continues to be one of the most influential people in the world politics. Hilary Clinton’s future after her defeat may not be certain, but her net worth at $38 billion looks solid and real. Looking at her latest Public Financial Disclosure Reports, the Clinton’s’ combined net worth totaled over 111 billion dollars. Although this presidential candidate does not own any business or any real estate, the Clinton’s’ main source of income is through paid speeches and using their names as assets.

Bill Clinton – Net Worth: $80 Million

Bill Clinton’s name in the political world needs no introduction. Born in 1946, Bill served as the 42nd president of the United States and was seen showing his full support for his wife presidential campaign in 2016. The Clinton family’s paid speeches have earned them a whopping $153 million in total, but that’s not the only source of income for this former president of the United States. Their Clinton Foundation, which assesses international issues and causes are worth $2 billion on its own and helped the family make a business empire that has added millions of dollars’ worth of equity to their names.

China’s Vice President Xi Jinping speaks at the home of Roger and Sarah Lande (2nd L) in Muscatine, Iowa February 15, 2012. Xi joked about receiving a gift of popcorn during his first visit to Muscatine in 1985.

The most important word in Chinese is 关系 guanxi. I’d tell you how to pronounce it but I’d be wrong. I was reading the Global Times in a Guangzhou Mai Dong Lao (McDonald’s) which stated that the three most important words in China were 关系 guanxi – it’s not what you know it’s who know, 面子 miànzi – “face”  harmony matters most. So we would not embarrass others in public by any way, even when someone make mistakes. One of my ESL students asked to redo her presentation in front of the class because she “lost face” (self-respect). The third word is 客气  kèqi  – be nice, be humble, you don’t have to bow like the Japanese but treat everyone as an equal.

When Jane Marie and I visited her relatives in Muscatine just after Xi Jinping took over in 2012, we congratulated then on having 关系 guanxi with the world’s second most powerful leader. Since then Obama rubbed China and Xi Jinping’s  面子 miànzi – “face” in the ground by calling them ‘free riders.’ That’s why China returned the ‘O’s bad 客气  kèqi by making him get off the back door of Air Force One.

This week Muscatine’s good 客气  kèqi and 关系 guanxi came home to roost when Trump tapped as ambassador to Beijing Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, whose friendship with Xi Jinping goes back to the Chinese leader’s visit to Iowa in 1985.

The New Yorker recently profiled Chinese President Xi Jinping,

In one section, the author, Evan Osnos, writes about the time Xi, then an up-and-coming Communist Party member, spent two weeks in rural America in 1985. For what’s believed to have been his first trip outside of China, Xi led an animal-feed delegation in Muscatine, Iowa, where he toured farms and visited rotary clubs.

Jane Marie is breaking out her old Mao uniform and highlighting her Norway Rotary exchange student creds.

For a few nights, the Chinese politician stayed with Eleanor and Thomas Dvorchak. Xi slept in the bedroom — complete with football-themed wallpaper and Stark Trek action figures — of the family’s son, then away at college.

Eleanor had this to say about Xi

He was looking out the window, and it seemed like he was saying, ‘Oh, my God,’ and I thought, What’s so unusual? It’s just a split-level,” she said. Xi did not introduce himself as a Communist Party secretary; his business card identified him as the head of the Shijiazhuang Feed Association. In 2012, on a trip to the U.S. before becoming top leader, he returned to Muscatine, to see Dvorchak and others, trailed by the world press. She said, “No one in their right mind would ever think that that guy who stayed in my house would become the President. I don’t care what country you’re talking about.”

Read the full story in The New Yorker 

Eleanor also described the Chinese politician as “humble. “He did not complain,” she told The New York Times. “Everything, no matter what, was very acceptable to him.”

Sarah Lande, the woman pictured above in red, organized Xi’s trip as part of a sister arrangement with the Chinese province where he worked, according to NPR. Since then, Xi has had periodic stints in the United States. His daughter attends Harvard University, and he returned to Muscatine in 2012, then as China’s vice president.

Upon reuniting with the Dvorchaks, and other “old friends,” on his second trip, Xi told the Muscatine Journal: “You were the first group of Americans I came into contact with,” he said. “To me, you are America.”

The Bad Guys in 1950 according to my Weekly Reader in Hyde Park Elementary school, Cincinnati, Ohio.

The Bad Guys in 2016 according to Charlie Hebdo at the Beziers, France train station.

I’m getting worried, back when they were having the Republican debates it was fun to watch. Then I got all excited about the hope that Bernie could beat Hillary – how naive. However, the goal was to destroy the establishment – well that’s a tall order but Trump did his part on November 8. Chuck Schumer and others are going to fight Trump, “tooth and nail.” As Hillary said, “Just what difference does it make now.”

The three previous 80-year, four-generational history dramas, were all about money. AMERICAN REVOLUTION: “Taxation without representation.” CIVIL WAR: “Maintaining the Slave Economy.” GREAT POWERS ERA: “Great Depression to WWII.” So far we have passed through three turnings of our current eighty-year drama 1946 to 2026.

First Turning 1945-1964

 Second Turning 1965-1984

 Third Turning 1985-2004

 Fourth Turning 2005-2026

The GOOD NEWS is the three previous flicks ended up good for the US. Washington became the first president of an independent United States of America. Abe got shot but the UNION survived. Harry had to drop the bomb on Japan but the US became an industrial powerhouse.

The BAD NEWS Richard ‘tricky-dick’ Nixon, nixed the Bretton Woods agreement to back the dollar with gold in August 1971 leading to an exponential explosion of ‘Fiat’ currency that has now made such a mess of things – nobody knows what to do.

The EXCITING NEWS it’s almost over, only nine more years max. Just like any good movie, TV series, mystery novel, or play you know it’s almost over but you don’t know how it’s going to end. Now you know what’s like to live somewhere besides America’ since 1991 when the Soviets gave up the ghost. The USA is the prettiest horse in the glue factory, and Trump is the only guy on the planet that can save us from ending up as some form of adhesive. Scary thought I know but true.

I always enjoyed Woody Allen’s The Purple Rose of Cairo, not because it was a good movie but for the concept of the actors stepping off the screen and interacting with the audience. We are watching a real life movie that’s been filmed since 1946 following the completion of the Great Powers flick that ran from 1929 to 1945. Before Great Powers was the Civil War 1794-1865 classic and of course the American Revolution got it all started back in 1701-1791.

Each of these 80-year, four generations epic struggles has been and as we speak, being filmed on multiple locations, employing an unlimited cast of extras drawn from the current world population. Although the entire film has been pre-scripted, none of the actors or even the directors has a clue about the dialog or plot points. The action moves along with occasional Purple Rose of Cairo moments where the audience appears in the movie by casting their vote for some leader.

1946-1964 First Turning	1965-1984 Second Turning	1985-2004 Third Turning	2005-2026 Fourth Turning

The lead roles are usually reserved for politicians and warriors. Think Washington and Jefferson in the American Revolution. Think Lincoln, Grant and Robert E. Lee during the Civil War. The Great Powers had FDR, Churchill, Stalin, Hitler, Eisenhower and Truman. So far, our little action-adventure, working title, The Millennials, has had JFK, Reagan, Osama Bin Laden, Obama and now Trump.

The movie is about to come to the end and while most would agree that that was true almost no one knows how it will end. When Lee and Grant met at Appomattox we knew it was all over but the shouting but Lincoln’s assassination was a Hitchcock shocker. Until Harry dropped the bomb we weren’t confident it was going to be over anytime soon. The Millennials are a super-quandary, the good ole bi-polar, Commies vs Capitalists, days are old news. The Barbarians are at everybody’s gate and the emperor’s got no clothes or money with to buy some. Donald J. Trump, the Black Swan, has arrived, the stage is set, relax and enjoy the show – it won’t be long now.

Our liaison at an English training school here in Antalya told me that the Illuminati was alive and well. This graduate of Turkey’s Harvard Koç Üniversitesi  proceeded to rattle off: the Rothschilds owned the Federal Reserve, they killed JFK, 9/11 was a hoax, and several other conspiracy theories.

Pooshaw I thought, that can’t be true. That was three years ago and after 2 books on Ataturk, 3 on the Ottoman Empire, Lawrence of Arabia’s “Seven Pillars of Wisdom”, Gallipoli, and a David Lloyd George bio, I saw only political machinations, not the hand of the Illuminati.

HOWEVER

My status, as a resident American economic refugee in Turkey keeps me in a daily quandary over the coming apocalypse as predicted in Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning.

As a ’43 model Boomer I was challenged in the 1st Turning ’43-’63, by almost flunking 9th grade Latin and  ‘emotional geek’  feelings in high school. I attempted to mask those inner insecurities with a Sigma Chi t-shirt and a ’63 Corvette Stingray in college.

Nixon drafted me in ’68, not a great start for the 2nd Turning ‘66-’86 but I got to see the South Pacific instead of in-country Vietnam. Got married to what would have been – had I not been a geek – my high school sweetheart in ’73. Went down the Amazon in ’75 as an architect living in Sao Paulo and up the Nile in ’86 as an USAID consultant contractor.

The 3rd Turning ’86-2008 was mid-life transition 45-55 and crisis time for Boomers. I had mine in ’91 and went from unemployed architect to goat farmer. Clinton a late ’46 model, famously said, “I did not have sex..” in ’98 right at the mid point of his transition. The original 3rd finish of 2004 was nudged up to 2008  by Neil Howe himself.  Now, the whole world from Millennials to Boomers was beginning to have crisis vibes.

Architectural firms always on the leading edge of booms and busts, foretold the 4th Turning ’08-‘0026 for me in 2007 when my former employer after 125 years in the AE & C business went bankrupt and my pension was transferred to the PGBC. Last year, this same PGBC told the unions  to ‘hold the mayo’ b/c they had already guaranteed too many others. I had to absentee ballot vote for Obama in ’08 from Mainland China b/c I couldn’t compete with all the Millennial baristas in Eugene or the too long Wal-Mart Greeter waiting list.

In 2011, I got my best gig ever, tutoring a Zhengzhou (fastest growing city in Asia) millionaire in English 3 hours each morning, 5 days a week for $3,500 a month, plus spa-swim club privileges. Four ‘A’ shares in Berkshire Hathaway plus a 10G diamond purchase gets you a pic with the billionaire. My English tutoring primarily consisted of learning how it works in China. Back then about 200 Chinese entrepreneurs trotted off to Omaha in May. My take away was the only Illuminati in China was the ‘party.’

My ‘putative’ spouse, Jane Marie, 2nd from the left, and I packed our 40  boxes of Chinese collectibles and emigrated to Antalya to catch the last act of the 4th Turning 2014-2026 on Turkey’s Mediterranean Riviera.

On November 9th at 4:00 AM our time we watched with absolute certainty – the shock and awe – of the 4th Turning. It wasn’t the ‘black swan’ that everyone expected it was an ‘orange swan.’ Jane Marie and all of her friends, her friends’ friends and 95% of FACEBOOK posts went into apoplexy – this was not how the 80 year, four generation Boomer movie was supposed to end.

Being a Hyper-rationalist like Obama, I knew (from my three readings of the Ottoman Empire) that it made no difference to the big boys, the deep state (Turkish: derin devlet) who won the 2016 election – their New World Order was just around the corner. Besides, Bannon had made a 4th Turning movie in his 2010 film, “Generation Zero,” which dumps the whole mess on Rothschild’s evil Federal Reserve. I wasn’t ready to buy Mr. Liaison’s, JFK and 9/11 conspiracy stories but G. Edward Griffin’s 600 page book The Creature from Jekyll Island