Fourth Turning Archetypes PROPHET, NOMAD, HERO & ARTIST historical record from the Civil War through the Great Depression to the approaching Millennial Big Bang.

I end with a new word, at least new to me. A friend called it to my attention. It speaks of the moment we’re in. It is “kakistocracy,” from the Greek. It means government by the worst persons, by the least qualified or most unprincipled.

Civil War Archetypes

The 2016 Presidential campaign for the Casablanca began at the end of WWII. At this juncture it is uncertain who gets on the plane. The letters of transit signed by de Gualle are the 2008 crash. The airport scene foreshadows our very Reality World Fourth Turning.

All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players; They have their exits and their entrances

In their book The Fourth Turning, Howe and Strauss identified four generational archetypes: Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad. Each consists of people born in a roughly 20-year period. As each archetypal generation reaches the end of its 80-year lifespan, the cycle repeats.

Each archetypal generation goes through the normal phases of life: childhood, young adulthood, mature adulthood, and old age. Each tends to dominate society during middle age (40–60 years old) then begins dying off as the next generation takes the helm.

This change of control from one generation to the next is called a “turning” in the Strauss/Howe scheme. The cycle repeats on a “fourth turning” as a new hero generation comes of age and replaces the nomads. Each fourth turning, however, is a great crisis.

Carl Jung had 12 archetypes with the four dominants named Mentor, Shadow, Hero and Trickster. These archetypes are illustrated in literature, art and movies.

Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning is an 80-year cycle of each generation participating in a four act drama. The play begins at the end of the last great crisis and proceeds through four stages of shared generational history to the climax of the next crisis. Act I: A High, this is a post-Crisis era. Act II: an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Act III: An Unraveling. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Act IV: A Crisis. This is an era in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival.

The First Turning Act I A High starring the SHADOW & PROPHET Archetypes

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, the Baby Boomer generation and Casablanca’s Major Strasser [after Laszlo leads the band in playing the French national anthem] You see what I mean? If Laszlo’s presence in a cafe can inspire this unfortunate demonstration, what more will his presence in Casablanca bring on? I advise that this place be shut up at once.

Neil Howe’s calls the First Turning, post crisis generational archetype the PROPHET. Jung’s term is called the SHADOW. Major Strassar and the Third Reich invasion of France provide the opening act of Casablanca.

The Second Turning Act II An Awakening starring the TRICKSTER & NOMAD Archetypes

Yoda, Generation X and Captain Louis Renault; “Round up the usual suspects,” are the Trickster/NOMAD archetypes that serve as catalysts.

Howe labels the archetype in Act II The Awakening, the NOMAD generation, in Jungian terms the TRICKSTER. Captain Renault, the Trickster character in Casablanca, plays both ends against the middle

The Third Turning Act III The Unraveling starring the HERO

According to Strauss and Howe, the Third Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs come after Crises, when society wants to coalesce and build. Unravelings come after Awakenings, when society wants to atomize and enjoy.

The HERO appears on the stage to save humanity. Humphrey Bogart as Rick Blaine, “the problems of three little people don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world.” is the real HERO in Casablanca. Walter White is the today’s anti-hero HERO, while the Millennial generation has displaced the WWII G.I. HEROES.

After the NOMAD archetype, the cycle repeats with another HERO generation: the Millennials (born from 1982 through about 2004) are beginning to take root in American culture. They are a large generation numerically, filling schools and colleges and propelling new technology into the mainstream. If the pattern holds, they will face a great crisis. It will influence the rest of their lives… just as World War II shaped the G.I. Generation heroes.

It’s not going to be a short period of difficulty. It will be an existential crisis, one in which society’s strongest institutions collapse (or are severely challenged and stressed) and national survival is in serious doubt. The Crisis can be economic, cultural, religious, military, or all the above.

The Fourth Turning Act IV A Crisis starring the MENTOR & ARTIST Archetypes 

According to the authors, the Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. America’s most recent completed Fourth Turning began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War II. The G.I. Generation (a Hero archetype, born 1901 to 1924) came of age during this era. Their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of the era. Bogart got Bergman on the plane, with the crisis over Blaine and Renault go off to join the Free French in Brazzaville.

The post crisis archetype is the ARTIST. Artists are the children of heroes, born before and during the crisis. They are, however, not old enough to be an active part of the solution. Highly protected during childhood, Artists are risk-averse young adults in the post-crisis years.  They see conformity as the best path to success. They develop and refine the innovations forged in the crisis. Artists experience the same cultural awakening as heroes but from the perspective of mid-adulthood.

Today’s older retirees are mostly artists, part of the “Silent Generation” 1925-1942 that may remember World War II but were too young to participate. They married early and moved into gleaming new 1950s suburbs. The MENTOR: Mr. Miyagi and the Karate Kid.  Noam Chomsky 1928 and Bernie Sanders 1941 in their generational role as ARTIST epitomize the MENTOR in real life. Ilsa Lund mentored Rick Blaine in the meaning of love.

All the world’s a stage,

And all the men and women merely players;

They have their exits and their entrances;

PROPHET/Shadow Baby Boomers Trump 1946 Hillary 1947 and Bill 1946 got us into this mess that only HERO/Hero Millennials Priscilla Chan 1985 and Mark Zuckerberg 1984 can clean it up.

Last scene of all,

That ends this strange eventful history,

Is second childishness and mere oblivion;

Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

  Trickster Renault & Hero Blaine walking off to the next Crisis. Trickster Obama & Hero Zuckerberg walking into the coming Crisis.

History is just a collection of four generation length movies that take 80 years to make. George and Tom played leading roles in the classic documentary, ‘The American Revolution.’ The second flick, ‘the Civil War’ took only 71 years to produce because Abe was shot before completion. Following this tragic-drama Teddy foreshadowed America’s leap on to the world stage in ‘the Great Wars of WWI & WWII.’ Our movie, our very own contribution to the fabled glory of the Generational Time Continuum, began in 1943, with in theater viewing scheduled no later than the summer of 2026. ‘Millennial’ was the generic title given, however, after Trump won in 2016, ‘Apocalypse Soon’ has been suggested.

Having a front row seat since September 1943, I’m going with The Conspiracy Wars as my title for this 4th and possibly last Turning flick.

The PROPHET: Harry Truman

Every great movie spills out in four stages, what Neil Howe in his book, Fourth Turning, calls turnings. The first act, in Howe lingo the 1^st turning, (1943-1963) opens with the situation, where we are, at that point in time.

The NOMAD: JFK

In the sequence of things, the next act belongs to the NOMAD, the pot stirrers, the men of action, the go-to-guys that get the show on the road for the 2^nd turning referred to as the Awakening  (1963-1986)

The HERO: George ‘W’ Bush

The 3^rd turning is always called the Unravelling  where history gets out of hand and the super HERO is born.  (1984-2008)

The ARTIST: Donald J. Trump

At last we get to the uncut action scenes with real and unrehearsed special effects, the 4^th turning A Crisis (2008-2026). The tension keeps building until the climax, followed by the resolution. This is always the best part of any story.

Rock, my favorite 7^th grader ESL student, had spent the previous two years attending public school in Manhattan because his mother was part of the Chinese delegation to the UN. Rock, in his fluent unaccented English, explained to me why the US education system was so fantastically wonderful and China’s so deplorable – CRITICAL THINKING.

I spent the next seven years in China trying to teach ESL the way I was taught Architecture – KINESTHETICALLY. Rock said the teachers in NYC actually asked the students questions versus memorizing answers as they do in China – that’s why they excel in math, they know all the formulas by heart. That explained why Trig, Physics, Calculus and Chemistry were absent from my scholastic radar. I did learn that asking questions was referred to as the Socratic Method and quite possibly that was the secret ingredient for CRITICAL THINKING.

However, not wanting to burst Rock’s bubble about the magnificence of American education, teaching English to 900 kids where, except for Rock and a sprinkling of two or three others in each class of sixty, nobody understood a thing I said, was a challenge even for Socrates himself. Further, reflecting on how I only passed my third year of Latin by making a plaster of Paris scale model of the Colosseum that had nothing to do with CRITICAL THINKING or Socratic questioning. I decided to stick with EXPERIENTIAL SIMULATIONS or learn-by-doing exercises e.g. teach them how to play baseball, go bowling, act out Little Red Riding Hood, and conduct Cheerleading team competitions.

After, six years, five months and fourteen days of KINESTHETIC insanity, I got an offer I couldn’t refuse. Jane Marie, in a moment of CRITICALLY THINKING clarity, said lets move to Antalya and live off my Social Security. Soon after arrival we were both engaged in the sharing of our vast ESL experience with the young Turks, who, like the Chinese, were paying for CRITICAL THINKING, not Cheerleading monkey-business. No longer monetarily burdened, I had time to home study just what is this CRITICALLY THINKING business, anyway? Maybe they don’t teach CRITICAL THINKING in architectural schools?

How come the Turks have lived on the other side of the Bosporus from Socrates’s home amphitheater for 2,500 years without picking up on a few CRITICAL THINKING tips? The Chinese have lots of good excuses, they live far away and have a 9,000 character alphabet that only they can read. That’s why Ataturk introduced the Latin letters in 1925 but by itself can’t make up 2500 years of lost learning. That’s why we don’t read books in architecture after our freshman year, it might hinder our creativity.

My CRITICAL THINKING veil was lifted one day when our Turk ESL book publisher turned me on to the father of ESL Stephen Krashen. Krashen’s theory claims that first, second and third language acquisition comes from reading books – no other way. No cheerleading, no watching TV, no grammar-vocab memorization – comic books to short story books to field of interest books. And therein lies the answer to my CRITICAL THINKING dilemma nobody read any books until GUTENBERG invented the printing press in the 1400’s.

Without Gutenberg we would have no Canterbury Tales, no Grimm’s Fairy Tales, no Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, no Walt Disney, no Hollywood and no ZUCKERBERG.

The pollsters got it all wrong. Hillary thought it was in the bag, but it just wasn’t in the cards. Hillary’s birthday was October 26th, during the debates she was in her 52 day NEPTUNE planetary period from September 4th to midnight October 25th. Call it fate, call it destiny or call it the infinite universe of ‘whatever’ Hillary got the NINE of Clubs card. Clubs are the mental cards and the NINE signifies and ending of beliefs, or mental constructs. The verse in the Scriptures of Robert Lee Camps’s Love Cards reads:

“It is entirely possible that a longtime cherished dream of yours could come to an end during this period. Let it go and many new and better things will come to replace it.”

Unfortunately two days after Hillary’s birthday FBI Director Comey dropped the Huma-Weiner bomb on October 28th. Hillary’s karmic fate gods dealt her the ACE of Spades in Mercury to get her 69th year off to a 52-day planetary start. The ACE of Spades represents ambition or death, its signification depends where and when it lands.

Trump, Bernie and Jeb Bush all have the ACE of Spades as either their Birth or Ego card. Hillary’s ego cards the QUEEN of Spades and KING of Clubs are great. However, The ‘who she truly is’ card the NINE of Hearts: The Giver of Love Card seems to follow the philosophy of “it is better to give than to receive.” Out of our 45 Presidents Zachary Taylor was the only NINE of Hearts and he died sixteen months into his term in office.

Hillary Clinton – Net Worth: $38 Million

Hilary’s political career may have experienced its setbacks due to her recent defeat to Donald Trump in the 2016 elections, but this powerful woman continues to be one of the most influential people in the world politics. Hilary Clinton’s future after her defeat may not be certain, but her net worth at $38 billion looks solid and real. Looking at her latest Public Financial Disclosure Reports, the Clinton’s’ combined net worth totaled over 111 billion dollars. Although this presidential candidate does not own any business or any real estate, the Clinton’s’ main source of income is through paid speeches and using their names as assets.

Bill Clinton – Net Worth: $80 Million

Bill Clinton’s name in the political world needs no introduction. Born in 1946, Bill served as the 42nd president of the United States and was seen showing his full support for his wife presidential campaign in 2016. The Clinton family’s paid speeches have earned them a whopping $153 million in total, but that’s not the only source of income for this former president of the United States. Their Clinton Foundation, which assesses international issues and causes are worth $2 billion on its own and helped the family make a business empire that has added millions of dollars’ worth of equity to their names.

China’s Vice President Xi Jinping speaks at the home of Roger and Sarah Lande (2nd L) in Muscatine, Iowa February 15, 2012. Xi joked about receiving a gift of popcorn during his first visit to Muscatine in 1985.

The most important word in Chinese is 关系 guanxi. I’d tell you how to pronounce it but I’d be wrong. I was reading the Global Times in a Guangzhou Mai Dong Lao (McDonald’s) which stated that the three most important words in China were 关系 guanxi – it’s not what you know it’s who know, 面子 miànzi – “face”  harmony matters most. So we would not embarrass others in public by any way, even when someone make mistakes. One of my ESL students asked to redo her presentation in front of the class because she “lost face” (self-respect). The third word is 客气  kèqi  – be nice, be humble, you don’t have to bow like the Japanese but treat everyone as an equal.

When Jane Marie and I visited her relatives in Muscatine just after Xi Jinping took over in 2012, we congratulated then on having 关系 guanxi with the world’s second most powerful leader. Since then Obama rubbed China and Xi Jinping’s  面子 miànzi – “face” in the ground by calling them ‘free riders.’ That’s why China returned the ‘O’s bad 客气  kèqi by making him get off the back door of Air Force One.

This week Muscatine’s good 客气  kèqi and 关系 guanxi came home to roost when Trump tapped as ambassador to Beijing Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, whose friendship with Xi Jinping goes back to the Chinese leader’s visit to Iowa in 1985.

The New Yorker recently profiled Chinese President Xi Jinping,

In one section, the author, Evan Osnos, writes about the time Xi, then an up-and-coming Communist Party member, spent two weeks in rural America in 1985. For what’s believed to have been his first trip outside of China, Xi led an animal-feed delegation in Muscatine, Iowa, where he toured farms and visited rotary clubs.

Jane Marie is breaking out her old Mao uniform and highlighting her Norway Rotary exchange student creds.

For a few nights, the Chinese politician stayed with Eleanor and Thomas Dvorchak. Xi slept in the bedroom — complete with football-themed wallpaper and Stark Trek action figures — of the family’s son, then away at college.

Eleanor had this to say about Xi

He was looking out the window, and it seemed like he was saying, ‘Oh, my God,’ and I thought, What’s so unusual? It’s just a split-level,” she said. Xi did not introduce himself as a Communist Party secretary; his business card identified him as the head of the Shijiazhuang Feed Association. In 2012, on a trip to the U.S. before becoming top leader, he returned to Muscatine, to see Dvorchak and others, trailed by the world press. She said, “No one in their right mind would ever think that that guy who stayed in my house would become the President. I don’t care what country you’re talking about.”

Read the full story in The New Yorker 

Eleanor also described the Chinese politician as “humble. “He did not complain,” she told The New York Times. “Everything, no matter what, was very acceptable to him.”

Sarah Lande, the woman pictured above in red, organized Xi’s trip as part of a sister arrangement with the Chinese province where he worked, according to NPR. Since then, Xi has had periodic stints in the United States. His daughter attends Harvard University, and he returned to Muscatine in 2012, then as China’s vice president.

Upon reuniting with the Dvorchaks, and other “old friends,” on his second trip, Xi told the Muscatine Journal: “You were the first group of Americans I came into contact with,” he said. “To me, you are America.”

The Bad Guys in 1950 according to my Weekly Reader in Hyde Park Elementary school, Cincinnati, Ohio.

The Bad Guys in 2016 according to Charlie Hebdo at the Beziers, France train station.

I’m getting worried, back when they were having the Republican debates it was fun to watch. Then I got all excited about the hope that Bernie could beat Hillary – how naive. However, the goal was to destroy the establishment – well that’s a tall order but Trump did his part on November 8. Chuck Schumer and others are going to fight Trump, “tooth and nail.” As Hillary said, “Just what difference does it make now.”

The three previous 80-year, four-generational history dramas, were all about money. AMERICAN REVOLUTION: “Taxation without representation.” CIVIL WAR: “Maintaining the Slave Economy.” GREAT POWERS ERA: “Great Depression to WWII.” So far we have passed through three turnings of our current eighty-year drama 1946 to 2026.

First Turning 1945-1964

 Second Turning 1965-1984

 Third Turning 1985-2004

 Fourth Turning 2005-2026

The GOOD NEWS is the three previous flicks ended up good for the US. Washington became the first president of an independent United States of America. Abe got shot but the UNION survived. Harry had to drop the bomb on Japan but the US became an industrial powerhouse.

The BAD NEWS Richard ‘tricky-dick’ Nixon, nixed the Bretton Woods agreement to back the dollar with gold in August 1971 leading to an exponential explosion of ‘Fiat’ currency that has now made such a mess of things – nobody knows what to do.

The EXCITING NEWS it’s almost over, only nine more years max. Just like any good movie, TV series, mystery novel, or play you know it’s almost over but you don’t know how it’s going to end. Now you know what’s like to live somewhere besides America’ since 1991 when the Soviets gave up the ghost. The USA is the prettiest horse in the glue factory, and Trump is the only guy on the planet that can save us from ending up as some form of adhesive. Scary thought I know but true.

I always enjoyed Woody Allen’s The Purple Rose of Cairo, not because it was a good movie but for the concept of the actors stepping off the screen and interacting with the audience. We are watching a real life movie that’s been filmed since 1946 following the completion of the Great Powers flick that ran from 1929 to 1945. Before Great Powers was the Civil War 1794-1865 classic and of course the American Revolution got it all started back in 1701-1791.

Each of these 80-year, four generations epic struggles has been and as we speak, being filmed on multiple locations, employing an unlimited cast of extras drawn from the current world population. Although the entire film has been pre-scripted, none of the actors or even the directors has a clue about the dialog or plot points. The action moves along with occasional Purple Rose of Cairo moments where the audience appears in the movie by casting their vote for some leader.

1946-1964 First Turning	1965-1984 Second Turning	1985-2004 Third Turning	2005-2026 Fourth Turning

The lead roles are usually reserved for politicians and warriors. Think Washington and Jefferson in the American Revolution. Think Lincoln, Grant and Robert E. Lee during the Civil War. The Great Powers had FDR, Churchill, Stalin, Hitler, Eisenhower and Truman. So far, our little action-adventure, working title, The Millennials, has had JFK, Reagan, Osama Bin Laden, Obama and now Trump.

The movie is about to come to the end and while most would agree that that was true almost no one knows how it will end. When Lee and Grant met at Appomattox we knew it was all over but the shouting but Lincoln’s assassination was a Hitchcock shocker. Until Harry dropped the bomb we weren’t confident it was going to be over anytime soon. The Millennials are a super-quandary, the good ole bi-polar, Commies vs Capitalists, days are old news. The Barbarians are at everybody’s gate and the emperor’s got no clothes or money with to buy some. Donald J. Trump, the Black Swan, has arrived, the stage is set, relax and enjoy the show – it won’t be long now.